Insider Data - Week ending 12/26/2009

I hope everyone had a great Christmas. Going around stores near here, it did not seem like we were hit by a financial armageddon only a year ago. I suppose that is a good thing. Market played pretty alright during the shortened trading week. Everyone is probably looking forward to the new year ahead and continued gains in the stocks. But there is lot of uncertainty out there. We will find what big investors think once the new year starts.

Insiders sell to buy ratio was favorable during the week compared to the previous week. I would like to understand why there are so many ups and downs in the insider activity week over week. Nothing has fundamentally changed in quite some time although the investor confidence seems to be in good shape if the volatility index (vix) is any indication. Following table shows the sell to buy ratios for past three weeks.



Top buys and sells during the week are shown in the table below. Some of the names like BIF have become a permanent fixture in the top buys section of the table, at least in past 2-3 weeks. Some thing is definitely up there although there is only a single insider who is doing all the purchasing.



Top buys by C-Level officers of the company are shown in the table below. I have been noticing that not too many CFOs putting in their neck forward. Should we be cautious like them or just that CFOs are relatively poor bunch?




Finally the industrial trends are shown in the table below. This is third consecutive week when independent oil has made it to this list.



I wish you all a very happy new year. Like rest of the market I hope that we actually recover at the pace that is priced into the market. Good luck to all.

Insider Data - Week ending 12/19/2009

This week had its own twists and turns. Dollar appreciated against Euro quite a bit, that ostensibly lead to decline in stock market and gold alike. Although the great results from Tech sector had been reassuring but the guidance from Fedex was not what analysts were hoping for. Citibank raising money in the market was another big event of the week. I like others hope it was for good although the current shareholders (read us tax payers) don't feel too excited about the dilution. And quadruple witching was not any help either. Market has been hanging in balance for almost 5 weeks now. Don't expect to see much action in the remainder of this year either.

The sell to buy ratio for the last week has turned unfavorable again. The cycle of buy/sell by the insiders has turned to sell again. So like rest of the market, insiders don't seem to be able to decide which way to go.




The top buys and sells of the week are shown in the table below. Pretty much all the names are new in the list compared to the list from the last week.



Top C-Level open market buy transactions are shown in the table below.



Finally, the independent oil has shown some strong insider buy side transactions recently. May be people are expecting some consolidation after XOM/XTO transaction.



Wish you all Merry Christmas and hope you all will find great stock ideas for next year. Some might be hidden in the Insider Data transactions themselves.

Insider Data - Week ending 12/12/2009

The week ending 12/12 was a week of indecision and volatility. Seems like the stocks are desperately looking for direction. For past 2-4 weeks, there seems to be a balance in bulls and bears activity. Bears are trying to find negatives in current market but bulls are trying to thwart bears' efforts but are not able to drive past the invisible shield that is preventing them to continue their charge. Dollar came back roaring this week, firming our belief that the only thing permanent today is the change. But one thing is becoming noteworthy week after week, the DOW is stalled in the 10K – 10.5K area and is stonewalling.

Insiders were on buying spree this week too though not as strong as it was in the week ending 12/05.The sell to buy ratio was not too terrible and it seems like insiders are making the sell/buy ratio settle down a bit after big wave of sells towards the beginning of November. The chart below shows the sell/buy activity as rolling average for past 10 weeks.



Top buy and sell side transactions can be seen in the table below. Among other, BIF seems to be in accumulation phase for several weeks now although there is only one insider that is buying all it can lay its hands on.



Some significant C-Level buys are shown in the tables below



Finally, there is no big change in the industry level trend among the insiders. Grocery stores have been performing well in the past two to four weeks, and continue maintain their supremacy. All the industrial trends ranks were the same like in the week ending 12/05 except for Independent oil and gas that seems to have seen some insider buying in past 2 weeks.



Economic strength of the recovery is in the news again. Only the numbers after the holiday season can confirm it. In the mean time, congress is debating the overhaul of financial sector. As suspected, all republicans in the congress are voicing their concerns over it while democrats are trying to push it through strictly on party lines. Although congress seems to claim that they are people's representatives but strict adherence to party lines raises doubts about those claims. Well we may never understand politics and may never understand the big money but one thing is a universal fact that it is fight for survival every where, be it main street, wall street or the congress. Although people may sugar coat it in what ever manner every one is on their own pretty much when it comes down to the basics. So good luck to all.

Insider Data - Week ending 12/05/2009

We are living in strange times or is it? The news coming out of Dubai would have made markets jittery for a long period of time, had we already not experienced the catastrophes in financial world last year. Quite different and less wide spread than Asian crisis of 1997, the similarity although can be drawn in the fact that Real Estate collapse played big part in both instances. But still, here we are, ten days after Dubai news. No impact. It seems like financial markets have increased their capacity for pain. Not sure if it is a good thing or bad.

Insider transactions last week were in full swing after a lull during the thanksgiving week. In fact the sell to buy ratio improved quite a bit during the latest week. Big part was played by an insider transaction in Black rock (BLK), a Half a Billion Dollar worth of buying. Even if that is excluded from the week's tally, the bullishness of the buy side insiders was impressive. Next few weeks will tell if the insider buying is a sustainable phenomenon or one time fluke. Table below shows the rolling averages for past up to 13 weeks.



Top buy and sell side transactions can be seen in the table below. Apart from BLK, Adaptec (ADPT) has shown some significant insider buying. Although the purchases have been by major investment firms (Steel Partners II LP), it still seems like significant buys. Are long term investors taking a note of it? Probably they are already.



Some significant C-Level buys are shown in the tables below



Finally, there is a change in the industry level trend among the insiders. Grocery stores have been performing well in the past two weeks, replacing Technical and system software from the top spot. Now what does that tell us? Do insiders feel that inflation would bring more revenues for grocery chains? Let us watch this interesting trend in weeks and months ahead.




The reduction in jobless claims was a welcome news towards the end of the week. Question is, would Federal reserve act or start thinking about acting to control the looming threat of inflation. Not any time soon, but I am sure it is something on Fed's radar screen and blinking amber alert.